While we wait for the Toyota bZ4X BEV in 2022 and fingers crossed for more RAV4 Prime PHEVs being sent to the US, Toyota USA is crushing it with sales of its regular hybrids. Our current EVAdoption forecast has regular hybrids accounting for ~23.3% of 2021 sales (Toyota brand only, not including Lexus.)
With its popular selling four BEVs, Fremont, CA-based Tesla accounted for 41.5% of EV registrations from 2008 through the end of 2020, according to data from the California DMV.
After 5 months of US sales numbers, it appears that Ford’s Mustang Mach-E BEV could be on pace for around ~32,000 or more in 2021, its first full year of availability.
The Chevrolet Volt was the number one-selling EV overall in 2012 and 2013, and number two in 2011, 2014, 2016 and number three in 2015. And for the years 2011 through 2018 the Volt never ranked below the #6 best-selling EV in the US.
From 2013 through 2017, US sales of BEVs versus PHEVs were neck and neck with PHEVs actually eking ahead of BEVs in 2016 by a bit more than 700 units. But then the EV world changed with deliveries of the Tesla Model 3 beginning in the US in July 2017, but really kicking into gear in 2018.
Tesla has sold the most BEVs globally from January 1 through April 30, 2021, according to a new report from Morgan Stanley using data from EV-volumes.com. When combined with GM and Volkswagen, those three automakers accounted for 43% of global BEV sales for the first four months of 2021.
Range continues to be a key concern for buyers of electric vehicles, but we are steadily making our way toward 300 miles of mean and median range for BEVs available in the US. In the chart below you can see the average BEV range has ticked up consistently since 2013 to about 250 miles of range by the end of 2020.
From 2014 through 2019, California EV sales accounted for roughly half or more of US EV sales – from a low of 49.6% in 2019 to a high of 57.3% in 2017. At 40.7%, 2020 saw California account for its second lowest share of US EV sales since 2011.
EVAdoption forecasts California BEV sales share jumping to 6.1% in 2021 and then increasing steadily to 56.6% by the end of 2030.
The story within California borders during the 2019 through 2020 period is the return of the sales for regular hybrids and a slight decline in sales share of PHEVs.
Tesla continues to dominate with 56.4% of all DC fast charging ports in the US. The Supercharger network, however, only accounts for 20.4% of all DCFC locations.
Hybrid sales then declined or remained relatively flat until they took another jump of 16.8% to nearly 401,000 in 2019. And then, even in a year of declining auto sales overall of -14% due to the pandemic, hybrid sales actually increased 15%. Hybrids are clearly back on the rise, driven by a strong push from Toyota and Honda and the huge success of the Toyota RAV4 hybrid.
Through 2020, the US cumulative vehicle in operation stock is well less than 3% for the combined vehicle powertrains of hybrids, BEVs, PHEVs, and FCEVs.
New BEV + PHEV sales almost matched regular hybrids in 2018; But then hybrid sales significantly outpaced EVs in 2019 and 2020.
EVAdoption tracking of future expected models suggests that the number of EVs (BEV and PHEV) available in the US should triple by 2025 to approximately 165 models from the 55 available in 2020.