For the period 2011 through Q1 2022, PHEVs accounted for 33.7% of total cumulative EV sales in the US. In Q1 2022, however, PHEV sales accounted for only 21.4% of EV sales, a decline from 24.2% in Q1 2021.
The high percentage of cumulative PHEV sales was historically driven by the Chevrolet Volt (GM discontinued in 2019), which for several years was the number 1 or 2 selling EV in the US, and the Toyota Prius PHV and then Prime. But then driven mostly by the Tesla Model 3 starting in 2017 and Model Y in 2020, BEV sales took off and have continued to greatly outpace sales of PHEVs.
The drop in share was not due to a decline in PHEV sales. In fact, PHEV sales in Q1 2022 actually increased 37% over Q1 2021 — but BEV sales increased 60%. Sales of the Jeep Wrangler 4xe PHEV, for example, are very strong — and through the first half of 2022 it ranks (AFAIK) as the third-highest selling EV after the Tesla Model Y and Model 3.
But unless Toyota and several other OEMs (e.g, Jeep Cherokee 4xe, a rumored Ford Maverick PHEV, etc.) produce PHEVs in very high volume, my forecast is that in 2030, new PHEV sales that year would account for only 11.3% of total new EV sales.
