In the US, for an auto manufacturer to reach 200,000 in sales of EVs (both BEV and PHEV) is rarified air with only Tesla and GM previously reaching this milestone. However, Toyota Motor Co. is expected to surpass 200K in EV sales this quarter (Q2 2022) and EVAdoption is forecasting that Ford Motor Co. will likely reach the tax credit phaseout milestone in Q3 of 2022.

Ford is one of only three automakers, the others being BMW and Mercedes-Benz, that disclose their EV sales publicly through the IRS’ IRC 30D – Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit Quarterly Sales website. Manufacturers are required to report EV sales to the IRS for purposes of the EV tax credit, but they can opt out of public disclosure. Ford’s numbers also include Lincoln brand EV sales (two PHEVs) and BMW’s numbers include its Mini brand EV sales.

With Ford disclosing US EV sales of 159,588 through 2021 and the in high-demand F-150 Lightning beginning deliveries now, combined with steady sales of the Mustang Mach-E and the new Transit-E van — it is just a matter of which quarter in 2022 would Ford reach the 200K phaseout threshold. By doing some reverse engineering of the data, Ford’s other EVs — which include the Escape PHEV, and Lincoln Aviator and Corsair PHEVs — have only accounted for a low of 12.4% (Q1) to a high of 24.2% (Q3) of Ford Motor Co.’s 2021 quarterly EV sales. For all of 2021 these models accounted for 17.6% of Ford Motor Co.’s EV sales.

EVAdoption forecast sales of the F-150 Lightning based on Ford’s 80,000 production target for 2022, recent and expected Transit-E and Mach-E sales, plus the Ford and Lincoln PHEV sales to arrive at 223,258 cumulative sales through Q3 2022. Of course supply-chain and factory production scaling issues for the F-150 Lightning and Transit-E could potentially greatly affect Ford’s sales in Q2 and Q3. That said, EVAdoption would still expect Ford to reach 200,000 during Q3.  (How The Federal EV Tax Credit Works.)