Earlier this year we forecasted 2021 Ford Mustang Mach-E sales at about 36,000 units based on a 3,000/month average — which looked reasonable based on February and March sales.

But perhaps due to the chip shortage and Ford sending a large percentage of the vehicles produced (which are assembled in Mexico) to Europe, the Mach-E will fall short of that level. Through November 2021, the Mach-E sold 24,791 units in the US and it should end 2021 with a very respectable 27,000 to 28,000 in year 1 of US sales.

For the trailing 3 months (Sept-Nov), the Mach-E is about 600 units per month behind the regular gas-powered (ICE) Mustang. 2022 will be interesting to watch as the Mach-E sales trends will probably be mostly about supply chain, as well as European demand that determines the US sales volume.

But if the proposed IRC 30D (federal EV tax credit) changes pass the Senate, they won’t actually help the Mexico-built Mach-E much — with the tax credit amount increasing to $8,000 instead of the current $7,500 tax credit.

The Mach-E may or may not surpass ICE Mustang sales for all of 2022, but I do expect the gap to close pretty significantly and that there will be several individual months where the Mach-E outsells the ICE Mustang.