Toyota’s US Hybrid Vehicle Sales Could Account for 23% of Total Sales in 2021

While we wait for the Toyota bZ4X BEV in 2022 and fingers crossed for more RAV4 Prime PHEVs being sent to the US, Toyota USA is crushing it with sales of its regular hybrids. Our current EVAdoption forecast has regular hybrids accounting for ~23.3% of 2021 sales (Toyota brand only, not including Lexus.)

Toyota continues to prioritize the RAV4 Prime units for the EU and China markets, so PHEV sales from the Prius Prime and RAV4 Prime will likely only account for about 2.2% of US sales in 2021.

While 2020 was a down year for US vehicle sales due to the Coronavirus pandemic, Toyota’s Q1 2021 increase in hybrid sales over Q1 2020 is still impressive. The company long associated with hybrids because of the iconic Prius, saw its US hybrid sales nearly triple with YOY increase of 172.1% and growth to 115,527 units sold from 42,453.

Toyota Q1 2020 sales vs Q1 2021-chart

Hybrid sales growth was led by models such as the hybrid-only Sienna van, Corolla hybrid, and Highlander hybrid. Interestingly, however, the Prius was the only hybrid that saw sales decline, with a 3% Q1 2021 drop versus Q1 2020.

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In Q1 2023, California overall reached 21.1% ZEV sales share, while the average ZEV sales share by county was 15% and the median was 13.1%. The Golden State had four counties (those with at least 50 ZEV sales in the quarter) with a greater than 30% ZEV sales share.