The story within California borders during the 2019 through 2020 period is the return of the sales for regular hybrids and a slight decline in sales share of PHEVs. The latter is due to GM discontinuing the popular Chevrolet Volt PHEV and the increase in BEV sales driven by the Tesla Model 3 and now Model Y. We expect regular hybrids to continue increasing for several more years as Toyota and Honda in particular launch hybrid versions of all of their top-selling vehicles.
While we wait for the Toyota bZ4X BEV in 2022 and fingers crossed for more RAV4 Prime PHEVs being sent to the US, Toyota USA is crushing it with sales of its regular hybrids. Our current EVAdoption forecast has regular hybrids accounting for ~23.3% of 2021 sales (Toyota brand only, not including Lexus.)