Legacy Automakers Are Critical to Meet Various Group’s 2030 EV Goals

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Various groups such as the new EV lobbying group Zero Emission Transportation Association (ZETA) and the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) have a direct or indirect target goal of 100% EV share of US new vehicle sales in 2030. (Read my article based on RMI’s goal – Can the US Reach 50 Million EVs in Operation by 2030?)

I don’t believe reaching 100% EV share of new vehicle sales by 2030 will be possible without either a ban on cars powered solely by an internal combustion engine or a vehicle emissions mandate. My current forecast is for the US to reach 31% EV sales share by the end of 2030. With a precipitous drop in battery prices, a continuous rise in gas prices, stricter CAFE mileage standards, and automakers increasing their transition to EVs – we could potentially reach a 50% share in 2030. 

But if we assume a scenario where the US DID reach 100% EV sales share by the end of 2030, what percent of sales would need to be from legacy automakers? Using my current forecast for new automakers accounting for roughly 11% of sales in 2030, the legacy automakers would have to step up and deliver nearly 90% of the EV sales.

If we assume that the new automakers would actually account for one-third of EV sales in 2030 – that still means that the legacy automakers would account for two-thirds.

I share this as the legacy automakers were apparently not invited to join ZETA. That’s fine, but good luck achieving that 100% goal without GM, Ford, FCA, Toyota, VW, Honda, Nissan, Mercedes, BMW, etc.



Average Range and Battery Size of PHEVs Currently Available in the US

With 32 PHEVs currently available in the US (as of September 21, 2021), they come in a wide variety of types, price, EPA range, and battery size. In the chart below we’ve analyzed the 32 PHEVs across 6 metrics. The mean (commonly referred to as the average) range is 24.7 miles and mean battery size is 13.5 kWh. When looking at the median, however, range drops to 21 miles and battery size down to 12.5 kWh.


PHEVs Account for Nearly 37% of EVs Sold to Date in the US

Through April 2021 PHEVs accounted for 36.7% of EVs (BEV and PHEV) sold in the US since January 2011. And in California, the most EV-centric state in the US, PHEVs comprise a slightly higher percentage of EV registrations to date at 38.3%.

PHEVs with 16 kWh or larger battery qualify for $7,500 tax credit

Six PHEVs Currently Qualify for the Maximum $7,500 Federal EV Tax Credit

There are six PHEVs that currently qualify for the $7,500 maximum tax credit, and their electric range is from a low of 21 miles for the Jeep Wrangler 4xe to a high of 65 miles for the Polestar 1. They also range in MSRP from about $38,000 for the Toyota RAV4 Prime to $165,000 for the Polestar 1. 

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