Legacy Automakers Are Critical to Meet Various Group’s 2030 EV Goals

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Various groups such as the new EV lobbying group Zero Emission Transportation Association (ZETA) and the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) have a direct or indirect target goal of 100% EV share of US new vehicle sales in 2030. (Read my article based on RMI’s goal – Can the US Reach 50 Million EVs in Operation by 2030?)

I don’t believe reaching 100% EV share of new vehicle sales by 2030 will be possible without either a ban on cars powered solely by an internal combustion engine or a vehicle emissions mandate. My current forecast is for the US to reach 31% EV sales share by the end of 2030. With a precipitous drop in battery prices, a continuous rise in gas prices, stricter CAFE mileage standards, and automakers increasing their transition to EVs – we could potentially reach a 50% share in 2030. 

But if we assume a scenario where the US DID reach 100% EV sales share by the end of 2030, what percent of sales would need to be from legacy automakers? Using my current forecast for new automakers accounting for roughly 11% of sales in 2030, the legacy automakers would have to step up and deliver nearly 90% of the EV sales.

If we assume that the new automakers would actually account for one-third of EV sales in 2030 – that still means that the legacy automakers would account for two-thirds.

I share this as the legacy automakers were apparently not invited to join ZETA. That’s fine, but good luck achieving that 100% goal without GM, Ford, FCA, Toyota, VW, Honda, Nissan, Mercedes, BMW, etc.



Toyota’s US Hybrid Vehicle Sales Could Account for 23% of Total Sales in 2021

While we wait for the Toyota bZ4X BEV in 2022 and fingers crossed for more RAV4 Prime PHEVs being sent to the US, Toyota USA is crushing it with sales of its regular hybrids. Our current EVAdoption forecast has regular hybrids accounting for ~23.3% of 2021 sales (Toyota brand only, not including Lexus.)

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